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Publications

Books and Monographs

  • Development of the Iranian Oil Industry, Praeger Publishers, New York, 1976.
  • Revolution and Energy Policy in Iran, The Economist Intelligence Unit, London, 1980
  • Critical Energy Issues in Asia and the Pacific:  The Next Twenty Years (co-authored), Westview Press, Colorado, 1982. 
  • OPEC and the World Oil Outlook:  Rebound of the Exporters? (co-authored), The Econo­mist Intelligence Unit, London, 1983.
  • OPEC, the Gulf and World Petroleum Market (co-authored), Westview Press, Colora­do, 1983.
  • OPEC and the World Refining Crisis (co-authored), The Economist Intelligence Unit, London, 1984.
  • The Changing Structure of the World Refining Industry:  Implications for the United States and Other Major Consuming Regions and Appendix I:  Developments in the Petrochemical Sector (co-authored), U.S. Department of Energy, 1985.
  • Earth and the Human Future:  Essays in Honor of Harrison Brown (co-edited), Westview Press, Colorado, 1986.
  • Japan:  Energy and Petroleum Sector Outlook (co-authored), The Economist Intelligence Unit, London, 1986.
  • OPEC and Asia: The Changing Structure of the Oil Market (co-edited). Special issue of the Energy journal, Pergamon Press, London, 1986.
  • China's Petroleum Industry in the International Context (co-edited), Westview Press, Colorado, 1986 
  • Spot Oil, Netbacks and Petroleum Futures (co-authored), The Economist Intelligence Unit, London, 1986.
  • Deregulating Australia's Oil:  The Implications for Global and Regional Markets (co-authored), The Economist Intelligence Unit, London, 1987 
  • The Oil Market in the 1990s:  Challenges for the New Era (co-edited), Westview Press, Colorado, 1989.
  • OPEC and Lower Oil Prices:  Impacts on Production Capacity, Export Refining, Domestic Demand and Trade Balances (co-authored), U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, 1989.
  • Electricity in Asia and the Pacific:  Power Station Fuel Demand to 2000 (co-authored), Economist Intelligence Unit, London, 1989.
  • The Dynamics of the Expanding Coal Supply in the Asia-Pacific Region (co-edited). Pasha Publications, Inc., Arlington, Virginia, 1989
  • The Asia-Pacific Gas Market: Implications for the ASEAN Gas Industry.  Special issue of the ASEAN Economic Bulletin 6(2).  Singapore:  Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, November 1989.
  • Economic and Political Incentives to Petroleum Exploration: Developments in the Asia Pacific Region (co-edited), University Press of America, Langham, Maryland, 1990 
  • Energy Market and Policies in ASEAN (co-edited), Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1991.
  • Fundamentals of Petroleum Trading (co-authored), Praeger, 1991.
  • Developments in the Global Oil Market:  Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region, Ministry of International Trade and Industry and Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo, Japan, 1991 (in Japanese).
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  • International Issues in Energy Policy, Development, and Economics (co-edited), Westview Press, 1992.
  • Japan’s Long-Term Petroleum Supply Strategy:  Policy Options for the Government and Industry(co-authored), Ministry of International Trade and Industry and Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo, Japan, 1993 (in Japanese).
  • Pacific Energy Outlook, (co-edited), East-West Center, 1995.

Selected Papers

  • “Some Thoughts on the Comparative Evaluation of Oil Contracts,” Quarterly Journal of Economic Research 9(25-26) Tehran University, 1972 
  • “Iran's Petrodollars:  Surplus or Deficit?,” Iran:  Past, Present and Future, J. Jacqs (ed.), Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies, New York, 1976 
  • “A Re-Evaluation of the Middle East Oil Reserves,” Pakistan Horizon 29(2) Karachi, 1976 
  • “The New World Economic Order:  The Energy Dimension” (with Reza Fallah), Middle East Economic Survey 20(3) Nicosia, Cyprus, June 1977; also published in OPEC Review, Vienna, Austria, October 1977 
  • “Comments on the U.S. and Iran Energy Policies,” Iran in the 1980s, A. Amiri and H. Twitchel (eds.), joint publication of the Stanford Research Institute and the In­stitute for International Political and Economic Studies, Tehran, 1977.
  • “An Indian Ocean Economic Community?” (with Dariush Malekpour), Economic Relations Between Southeast Asia and West Asia, Lee Soo Ann (ed.), Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1978.
  • “Iran’s Energy Perspective in the 1980s,” Middle East Economic Survey 22(4) supplement, Nicosia, Cyprus, November 1978.  Also published in OPEC Review, Vienna, January 1979 
  • “Iran’s Energy Picture After the Revolution,” Middle East Economic Survey 22(46) supplement, September 1979, Nicosia, Cyprus.  Also published in Petroleum Intelligence Weekly 18(39) supplement, New York,
  • 24 September 1979
  • “Evolution of Petroleum Contracts:  An Economist’s Interpretation,” presented at the Workshop on Mineral Policies to Achieve Development Objectives, East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, June 9-13,1980.  RSI Working Paper, WP-82-10, April 1982.
  • “Assessing Alternative Resources, Technologies, and Organizational Means for Meeting Rural Energy Needs” (with Richard Morse), Energy for Rural Development Program Report, PR-80-1, Resource Systems Institute, East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, September 1980.
  • “Global Petroleum Supplies:  Prospects and Problems,” OPEC Review 4(2) Vienna, Summer 1980.
  • “World Supplies of Petroleum in the 1980s,” Energy 6(8) Pergamon Press, London, 1981.
  • “OPEC vs. Developing Nations Energy Needs,” Proceedings of the Workshop on Energy and Developing Nations, Stanford University and Electric Power Research Institute, Pergamon Press, 1981.
  • “The Future of OPEC Policy,” California and World Oil--The Strategic Horizon, California Energy Commission, Sacramento, 1981 
  • “Joint Development of Offshore Petroleum Resources:  The Persian Gulf Experience,” Geology and Hydrocarbon Resources of the South China Sea, special issue of Energy 6(11) Pergamon Press, London, 1981.
  • “World Oil Availability:  The Role of OPEC Policies,” Annual Review of Energy 6, California, 1981.
  • “Iran:  Energy Policy Before and After the Revolution,” Security Dimensions in the Persian Gulf, H. Amirsadeghi (ed.), Croom Helm, London, 1981.
  • “Pricing Crude:  An OPEC Primer,” East-West Perspectives, East-West Center, Honolulu, spring 1981.
  • “The Emerging Petroleum Product Market:  Implications for the World Refining and Transport Industries,” (with David T. Isaak), Petroleum Intelligence Weekly 20(25), special supplement, New York, 22 June 1981
  • OPEC Policies and the Developing Asian Nations, Energy Department Paper No.2, The World Bank, Washington, D.C., September 1981 
  • OPEC Downstream Processing--A New Phase of the Oil Market (with David T. Isaak), East-West Resource Systems Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii, October 1981 
  • “The Quiet Revolution:  OPEC and The World Hydrocarbon Industry” (with David T. Isaak), The International Essays for the Business Decision Makers, Mark Winchester (ed.), Vol. V, The Center for International Business, Texas, 1982 
  • “Iran-U.S. Relations in the Mid Range:  The Economic Factor,” Proceedings of the Conference on U.S. Relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia:  Problems and Prospects, U.S. Army War College, Pennsylvania, 1982.
  • “1982 Outlook for Oil,” Middle East Economic Survey, Cyprus, 10 May 1982
  • “Demand for Petroleum Products in OPEC Countries,” (with Lisa Totto, Todd Johnson, and David T. Isaak), Middle East Economic Survey, special supplement, Cyprus 28 June 1982
  • “Hydrocarbon Processing in OPEC Countries:  Excess Capacities and Readjustment Policies in the World Refining Industry” (with David T. Isaak), International Energy Markets--The Changing Structure, P. Tempest (ed.), Oelgeschlager, Gunn and Hain, Inc., Massachusetts, 1983.
  • OPEC and European Energy Security (with Wendy L. Schultz), Occasional Papers of the Graduate Institute of Advanced International Relations, Geneva, Switzerland, 1983.
  • “Oil Dependence and Mega Projects:  Return to Economic Normalcy in Iran?” (with Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani), Middle East Economic Survey, special supplement, Cyprus, 21 Februrary 1983
  • “Supply and Demand for Petroleum in the Asia-Pacific Region:  Structural Changes, Options, and Vulnerabilities in the 1980s,” Proceedings of Pacific Symposium III, National Defense University, Washington, D.C., March 1983.
  • “An Unbalanced Oil Market and Possible Solutions,” Financial Times's Energy Economist, May 1983.
  • “OPEC and the Structural Changes in the World Oil Market: The Outlook After the Counter-Revolution” (with Sharon L. Hoffman), presented to the International Association of Energy Economists Conference, Washington, D.C., 9-10 June 1983. Published in Energy 10(3-4) Pergamon Press, London, 1985.
  • “Oil Prices Without OPEC:  A Walk on the Supply Side” (with David T. Isaak and James Roumasset), Energy Economics, London, July 1983.
  • “Oil and Gas in Asia:  Trading Potentials and the Refining Outlook” (with Sharon Hoffman and Wendy Schultz), presented to the Conference on Asian Energy Supplies and Requirements, International Center for Energy and Economic Development, University of Colorado, Boulder, 4-5 October 1983.  Published in Asian Energy Supplies and Requirements, by R. El-Mallakh (ed.), 1986.
  • “Some Reflections on the State of the Oil Market,” Middle East Economic Survey, Cyprus, 5 December 1983
  • “Oil And Gas Trade in the Pacific Basin” (with Wendy Schultz), U.S.-Japan Cooperation and Competition, R. Morse and C. Ebinger (eds.), Westview Press, Colorado, 1984.
  • “A Revolution in World Refining,” Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, special supplement, New York, 27 February 1984
  • “OPEC's Push into Refining:  Dilemma of Interactions Between Crude and Product Markets,” (with Hossein Razavi), Energy Policy, London, June 1984.
  • “OPEC Domestic Oil Demand Revisited,” (with Lisa Totto and Todd Johnson), Petroleum Economist, June 1984.
  • “The New Saudi Export Refineries:  The Role of Shipping Costs in Determination of Product Prices and Their Competitiveness,” (with Nancy Yamaguchi), East-West Center, September 1984.
  • “OPEC and Asia: Factors Affecting the Energy Product Trade,” (with David T. Isaak), presented to the Conference on OPEC and Asia:  The Changing Structure of the Oil Market, Seventh Asia-Pacific Energy Studies Consultative Group (APESC), Honolulu, Hawaii, September 1984. Proceedings in special issue of Energy, the International Journal, F. Fesharaki and K. Smith (eds.), 1986.
  • “Energy Supply:  The Power of the Producers,” Proceedings of the Conference on Energy:  Economics and Politics, National Energy Administration, Sweden, 8-10 October 1984.
  • “Economic and Technical Analysis of Options and Strategies Facing the Korean Refining Industry,” (with David T. Isaak, Yoon Hyung Kim, and Thomas Wilson), for the Government of Korea, East-West Center, December 1984.
  • “Energy and Channels of International Communication,” (with Majid Tehranian and Terrance Tehranian), OPEC Review 9(1), spring 1985.
  • “Impact of OPEC Export Refineries on the World Refining Industry,” (with David T. Isaak), presented to Conference of the National Petroleum Refiners Association, San Antonio, Texas, March 24-25, 1985.  Also appeared in Hydrocarbon Processing (May 1985) and Oil Daily (26 March 1985).
  • The Changing Structure of the Pacific Oil Market and the Seaborne Transport Industry:  Implications for the Pacific Island Nations (with Nancy Yamaguchi), prepared for the United Nations Pacific Energy Development Programmed, July 1985.
  • A Techno-Economic Study of Natural Gas Utilization in the ESCAP Region (with David Isaak and Tom Wilson), U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, September 1985.
  • “Oil Trading in the Asia-Pacific Basin:  The Role of Singapore As An Oil Trading Center,” keynote address to the First International Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference on Oil Trading Activities and Opportunities in the Asia-Pacific Basin, Singapore, 16-18 September 1985.
  • “Natural Gas Supply and Demand Planning in the Asia-Pacific Region,” (with Wendy Schultz), Annual Review of Energy 10, H. Brooks and J. Hollander (eds.), published by Annual Reviews, Inc., California, fall 1985.
  • “Asian Natural Gas Trade to Double,” (with Wendy Schultz), Petroleum News, Vol. 16(8), November 1985.
  • “Asia's Gas Trade:  Equilibrium By 2000,” (with Wendy Schultz), Petroleum News 16(9), December 1985.
  • “Refining and Petrochemicals in the Asia-Pacific Region: Outlook and Investment Potential Over the Next 25 Years,” presented to the Asian Development Bank and Asia-Pacific Bankers Club Seminar, Industrial Analysis in the 21st Century, Singapore, 17-18 February 1986.
  • Petroleum Product Imports and the U.S. National Security: An Annual Update and Review of Recent Major Studies,” (with David Isaak), presented to the Trinational Energy Policy Workshop, Palo Alto, California, 20-21 February 1986.
  • “Declining Oil Prices:  Impact on Debt and Foreign Exchange Balances in Asia and Latin America,” (with David Isaak), presented to the Asia-Pacific Bankers' Club Annual General Meeting, Singapore, 27-28 February 1986.
  • “Structural Changes in the Asia-Pacific Oil Market,” published by the Pacific Energy Cooperation Symposium, Tokyo, April 1986.
  • “South Pacific Oil Study:  Phase One (SPOS I):  An Overview of the Global/Pacific Oil Market and the Potential Supply Options,” (with David Isaak, Sam Pintz, and Nancy Yamaguchi), presented to the Standing Committee of the Pacific Islands Development Program, East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, 17-18 June 1986.
  • “L'Industria Della Raffinazione Verso Il 2000,” Energia, March 1987.
  • “Adjustment of Worldwide Refining Capacity,” OGJ Report: World Petroleum Congress Report No. 1, Oil and Gas Journal, 20 April 1987
  • “Premature Excitement:  Vietnam Is Producing Oil, But Not Much,” Far Eastern Economic Review, 28 May 1987
  • “Supply and Demand Outlook in the Asia-Pacific Region,” keynote address to the Third International Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference III:  Oil - The New Era, Singapore, 21-24 September 1987.
  • “Iranian Oil Production and Exports, 1987” (with Saeed Taeb), East-West Center, September 1987.
  • “The Changing Nature of Forces in the World Oil Market,” presented to the Advanced Seminar on World Oil Prices, Shenzheng Special Economic Zone, Guangdong Province, China, 12-25 October 1987.
  • “China's Petroleum Industry:  International and Domestic Policy Imperatives,” (with David Fridley), China Oil, Hong Kong, summer 1987.
  • “Historical Perspectives on Japanese Energy Policies,” (with Yasumasa Kuroda and Wendy Schultz), Energy Systems and Policy, 1987.
  • “China and the Changing Global Energy Industry,” (with David Fridley), presented at the Pacific Forum Consultative Seminar, Makaha, Hawaii, 30 November- 2 December 1987 
  • “Energy Outlook in the Asia-Pacific Region:  Declining Oil Availability and Its Impact on Gas Requirements,” keynote address to the First Asia-Pacific Gas Conference, Singapore, 30 January- 2February 1988
  • “LNG’s Crucial Power Role in Japan,” (with Lisa Totto), Oil and Gas News, 10-16 October 1988 
  • “Reading the World Oil Market:  A Case Study in Uncertainty?,” presented to the Electric Power Research Institute 1988 Fuel Supply Seminar, Kansas City, Missouri, 11-13 October 1988.
  • “Energy Outlook in the Asia-Pacific Region,” ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 6(2):143­48. November 1989.
  • “The International Petroleum Market:  Changing Structure in the Future Outlook.” In William E. James (ed.), The Energy-Economy Link: New Strategies for the Asia-Pacific Region. New York: Praeger, 1989.
  • “Oil Prices in the Short, Medium and Long Term,” Energy Policy, January-February 1990.
  • “Crisis Means Changes for Oil Market, OPEC,” (co-authored), Oil and Gas Journal, November 1990.
  • “Energy Consumption Trends in High Growth Asian Economies Before and After 1986,” (with William James), Natural Resources Forum, May 1990.
  • “Electricity Supply and Demand in the Asia-Pacific Region,” (co-authored), Annual Review of Energy, 1991.
  • “A Decade of Change in the Asia-Pacific Petroleum Market,” (co-authored), Natural Resources Forum, May 1991.
  • “Oil Prices in the Short, Medium, and Long Term,” Revue de L'Energie, July-August 1991.
  • “Hawaii's Energy Sources in 2001,” (co-authored) Hoa Hana, October 1991.
  • “Energy Supply and Demand Outlook in the Asia-Pacific Region,” (co-authored), OPEC Review, 1992.
  • “Energy Policies in Asian-Pacific Developing Economies,” (co-authored), Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, November 1992.
  • “Oil Prices in a New Light,” Hydrocarbon Processing, May 1994.
  • “The Outlook for the Asia-Pacific Oil Industry in the 1990s and Beyond,” (co-authored), Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, December 1994.
  • “China:  Evolving Oil Trade Patterns and Prospects to 2000,” (co-authored), Natural Resources Forum, 1995.
  • “Asia-Pacific LNG Market: Outlook to 2010,” (co-authored), OPEC Review, 1995.
  • “Recent Trends in Domestic Energy Prices of Asia: Impacts of Deregulation and Changing Policy Directions,” (co-authored), OPEC Review, June 1996.
  • “Asia as the Center of Gravity of the World Energy System,” Energy, Vol. 21, No. 11, 1996